Using The Kelly Criterion Formula In Sports Betting

If you’re exploring sports betting for the first time, understanding how much to stake on a bet may feel confusing. Some people place small bets just for entertainment. Others look for methods that might help them make more calculated decisions. One approach some bettors consider is called the Kelly Criterion.

This blog will walk you through what the Kelly Criterion is, how it works, and how it could be used in betting on sports like horse racing and football. Everything will be explained step by step, using simple language. We’ll also highlight how responsible gambling fits into this, because betting should always stay within your personal limits.

Whether you’re curious about betting maths, or just want to understand what the Kelly Criterion means, this guide is designed for beginners who have no previous experience with betting or sports in general.

What Is The Kelly Criterion Formula?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula. It’s used by some people to help decide how much money to bet on a certain outcome. The idea is to use it when you think the chance of something happening is better than what the odds may suggest.

Before using this formula, you’ll need two things:

• Your own estimate of the chance (or probability) that something will happen
  
• The odds being offered by the betting site or bookmaker

The Kelly Formula Looks Like This:

f = ((b × p) – q) ÷ b

Let’s break that down into plain English:

• f = the fraction of your bankroll (total betting funds) that the formula suggests you might want to bet
  
• b = the decimal odds on offer, minus 1
  
• p = the probability (as a decimal) that you think the event will happen
  
• q = the probability that the event won’t happen (this is 1 minus your value for p)

Example Breakdown

Say you believe there’s a 50% chance (so p = 0.5) that a football team will win, and the betting site offers odds of 2.0 (decimal odds).

Here’s what you’d do:

• b = 2.0 – 1 = 1.0
  
• p = 0.5
  
• q = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5

Now plug those into the formula:

f = ((b × p) – q) ÷ b

This tells you that, based on your estimated probability and the odds, there’s no value in placing this bet using the Kelly Criterion.

This method isn’t about trying to predict winners — it’s about deciding how much to risk when you believe the odds are in your favour. It assumes you can estimate probabilities accurately, which isn’t always easy.

Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Examples

In this section, we’re going through some examples to see how the Kelly Criterion might be used in popular sports like horse racing and football. Using practical scenarios, we aim to show how this formula can be applied to these sports. Understanding these examples could give you a clearer view of how some bettors might use the Kelly Criterion to decide on their stakes.

Horse Racing

Let’s say you’re looking at a race and believe a certain horse has a 30% chance of winning. That’s a probability of 0.3.

A betting site offers odds of 4.0 on this horse.

Here’s how you’d work it out:

• b = 4.0 – 1 = 3.0
  
• p = 0.3
  
• q = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7
  

Plug it into the formula:

f = ((b × p) – q) ÷ b

That result suggests a bet size of about 6.6% of your bankroll.

Important: In horse racing, many things can influence the outcome — such as the horse’s previous performances, the condition of the track, the experience of the jockey, and even the weather. Estimating a true probability is not straightforward, so any use of the Kelly Criterion must be approached carefully.

Football Betting

Now take a football example. You believe a team has a 65% chance (0.65 probability) of winning, and the odds on them are 1.9.

• b = 1.9 – 1 = 0.9
  
• p = 0.65
  
• q = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35
  

Plug it into the formula:

f = ((b × p) – q) ÷ b

This result suggests a bet size of roughly 26.1% of your bankroll.

Again, this assumes that your estimate (65%) is accurate and that the odds represent value.

Is The Kelly Betting Formula Profitable?

The Kelly Criterion is not a way to win more often. It’s a method to manage how much you stake when you believe a bet has positive expected value — that means when you think the odds are better than the chance of the outcome.

However, in real-life betting:

• Estimating accurate probabilities is very difficult.
  
• Sports are unpredictable, and surprises happen all the time.
  
• Bookmakers often adjust their odds to include a margin — this gives them an edge.

If your own estimates are off, the formula can suggest stakes that don’t suit your situation. It’s just one approach, and it depends heavily on how well you understand the sport and how confident you are in your predictions.

You might find that betting smaller amounts, or using a simpler flat-staking method (betting the same amount each time), feels more comfortable. It ultimately comes down to personal preference.

Is There Any Betting Formula To Always Win?

No. There’s no formula or system that can guarantee profits in sports betting. The nature of sport means that outcomes depend on real-life events, which can’t be known in advance.

Even the most informed guesses are still guesses. Injuries, referee decisions, or even one poor performance can change everything. That’s why betting carries risk.

While the Kelly Criterion gives a mathematical way to think about value, it won’t lead to wins on its own.

Some key points to remember:

• Sports betting should never be used as a way to make money.
  
• Wagering should be for entertainment only.
  
• Wins are not guaranteed, and all bets carry risk.

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With clear terms and conditions, Bet442 ensures you understand how to manage your bets. Remember, each wager carries an element of chance. While strategies can potentially enhance the experience, outcomes are not guaranteed. Dive into the offerings at Bet442 and discover what sports betting can offer for those eager to partake responsibly.

_{*All values (Bet Levels, Maximum Wins etc.) mentioned in relation to these games are subject to change at any time. Game features mentioned may not be available in some jurisdictions.}

_{**The information provided in this blog is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as betting advice or a guarantee of success. Always gamble responsibly.}